Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies (10:35am)

There’s one game this morning that’s catching my eye as a potential public trap. SportsInsights is reporting that over 80% of the tickets and money are on the Over in the Marlins/Phillies matchup. Oddsmakers opened the total at 8.5, but it has since dropped to 8 (Under -115). That movement is a strong indicator that sharp money is hitting the Under—and I’m on the same side.

Both teams come into this one with a pitching edge. Neither lineup has faced Jesús Luzardo or Connor Gillispie before, giving the pitchers an upper hand and adding value to the Under. Luzardo has been sharp this season, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.31 ERA over 23+ innings. Meanwhile, Miami has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, hitting just .206 and averaging under a run per game (0.9) against southpaws.

On the other side, Gillispie is looking to bounce back after a rough outing against Arizona where he gave up 8 earned runs. While the Phillies should find some offensive success here, they might need to carry the entire load if this game is going to hit the Over.

My numbers project a final score of 5-2 in favor of the Phillies, putting the total right at 7 runs—solid value on the Under at the current odds.

(2x-Rated Members Only)

Pick: Under 8 (-115)

🍀Best of luck!

ExclusiveVipSports